Virtually defined candidates for mayor of Minatitlan, the PRI will Guadalupe Porras for Convergence will Uscanga Robinson, the PRD will Carlos de la Maza, the PAN will Jorge Nader and the PRV will Amado Guzman. If you do not know of anything else to change the political spectrum of candidates for mayor, may make an initial exercise to make a prediction of what the results in the day on September 2.
The magic number to overcome in this next election is 15 thousand votes. Define the choice voters basically two contenders: Robinson Uscanga and Guadalupe Porras.
Although the PRI vote hard between 20 and 25 thousand votes, the fact is that in this election that core vote is split by gender in particular, so that Guadalupe Porras win between 10 and 12 thousand 500 votes of women, since if we consider that the oil union provides almost 100% of the vote and that this union is unhappy with the leadership of the FLS, men, ie 10 or 12 thousand 500 votes that would bring oil men benefit from the other candidates. Porras I would bet that the women of the civil society will provide 2 000 500 votes or more to overcome the magic number.
As regards Uscanga Robinson, Convergence candidate, we must even in the 2004 election and on behalf of the coalition PRD-PT-Convergencia won in round 21 000 votes in the past 2006 election that won ran for federal deputy in Minatitlan 30 000 500 votes again embraced by the Coalition PRD-PT-Convergencia, now no longer have to favor the effect peje "nor is sheltered by that coalition, for the above, if we take the hard vote PRD which are almost 6 000 votes according to the local election of 2000 in which the PRD competed only, we would expect votes of 15 000 votes (21 thousand less than 6 000 votes in the PRD, based on the election of 2004) however, as it is not at stake the state government and that the movement led by "El Peje" is in decline, the expectation of Robinson will keep that vote, which by itself round 15 thousand votes.
As for the PRD already mentioned that its core vote is almost 6 000 votes. Its candidate, Carlos de la Maza is not political and I bet everything in its name, which is the same as his dad, Carlos de la Maza, the difference is that the former is Santoprieto mother's maiden name and the second González, would have to see how much invested in this campaign and how well capitalized the good name of his father. If the PRD hard vote we add a few votes of detachment that the PRI will get that this time the PRD obtained between 8 and 9 thousand votes. Similar
are the expectations in the PAN with their candidate Jorge Nader that input will weigh his explosive character and its not very clear last, it will struggle to unify the PAN, which after the death of Andrew Sutton candidate the party has been drifting for not have a figure strong enough to push through the party. A good result for the PAN, which in 2000 came to get up 11 000 votes, will be to keep the vote in 2004, ie about 8 000 400 votes.
Finally, the PRV in 2004 obtained 1 000 200 votes and retained his record results in other municipalities least Minatitlan now bet his political capital to the figure of "Don Amado, which although does not guarantee the triumph of that party, it will factor to determine the winner of the municipal race. If you were to get about 4 thousand votes on who will be benefited in the list of aldermen in the first place.
And speaking of regidurías and after application of the formula and other more common factor, the council would be composed with 4 rulers of the PRI (from 15 thousand votes for Guadalupe Porras), Convergencia get 4 regidurías ( derived from the 15 000 votes of Robinson), the PRD would aspire to 2 council areas (derived from the 8 or 9 thousand votes for Carlos de la Maza child) and get 2 regidurías PAN (if you can keep the vote of 2004) with this and are 12 council areas, however, Don Amado accommodate a ruler to do so would rob any of the last two games, the PRD or the PAN and define more or less who would head to the town of Minatitlan. No doubt Don Amado is already a living legend in this town.
Regarding the prognosis of the voting for deputies in District 28 with header in Minatitlan, there is the expectation that the vote be differentiated , ie it will be different from the vote on the choice of Town Councillors but this will be the subject of another outcome.
RRP Post July 17, 2007.
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